月亮和标准普尔500指数

The Moon and the S&P 500  月亮和标准普尔500指数

Dr. Hans Hannula

汉斯 汉诺拉 教授

Moon Tides   月亮潮汐

There is absolutely no doubt that the Moon has a major influence on the S&P 500, especially during the trading day. This influence comes from a real, physical cause and effect relationship.

Everyone knows that the Moon has a strong effect on the oceans. It pulls the ocean waters into massive tides. On the average the Moon raises the entire ocean surface about six feet as the earth rotates. In a particular bay, the rise and fall may be far larger, due to the shape of the bay. In the Bay of Fundy, tides can rise 50 feet. So in ocean tides, there is an average level, and a "personalized" level for each bay.

不用怀疑月亮是主要影响SP500的因素。尤其是在交易日期间，这种影响是真实存在的，有因果关系的。每个人都知道月亮最大的影响是对海洋的影响。它拉动海洋的水出现巨大的潮汐。在地球自转的同时，月亮能够将海平面拉起平均达到6英尺的水平。在一些特殊的海湾，这种起落会非常的巨大，在FUNDY海湾，潮汐可高达50英尺，所以在海洋潮汐过程中，这里只是给出一个平均值，针对每一个海湾都有它自身的潮汐特点。

The same thing applies to the effect of the Moon on markets. There is an average effect, and a "personalized effect." But what is it that is being tugged by the Moon? What links the Moon to the intraday price swings? The link is through the earth's electric field. As the solar wind carries ionized particles from the sun, they form a charged layer around the earth, called the ionosphere. That layer charges up to about +300,000 volts. The earth's surface, upon which we stand, is the zero volt end of that battery. You, me, all of us, stand in that electric field. It places a voltage of about 250 volts on our heads. It causes a current of 250,000 nanoamperes to flow though us. Our brains work on currents near one nanoampere. So these external currents are much, much larger than our bio-currents. When these currents surge, we feel them as emotions. And when we feel emotional, we trade emotionally! So prices move up and down with tides in these currents. These tides can change 20 percent in a few hours.

同样的影响结果也同样出现在市场上。这里有一个平均影响，还有一个“个体”影响。但是月亮是怎么拖拉价格的呢？月亮和日间价格波动之间存在什么样的纽带？这个纽带是通过地球的导电的区域来实现的，就象太阳风从太阳带来大量的电离粒子，它们形成了一个非常活跃的层包饶在地球外面，被称之为电离层。这个电离层的电负荷高达30万伏特。在地球的表面，就在我们站立的地方，是这个巨大电池的零电位。你，我，所有人，站在一个导电的领域里。我们头顶上大致有250伏特的电压负荷。它导致了一个250，000毫微安的电流流过我们。我们的智力活动只需要大约一个毫微安的电流。所以这些外部的电流太大了，比我们自身的电流大很多。当这些电流出现汹涌澎湃的波动时，我们就会把它释放成一种情绪化。而当我们变的情绪化了，交易就建立在情绪上面了。因此价格的上升下降就和这些电流的潮汐逐渐趋向一致。这些潮汐可以在几小时内改变20%。

The Moon is a major contributor to these tides in the earth's electric field. At new Moon, the Moon is between the earth and the sun. It traps charges, lowering the voltage on the ionosphere, and on us. We feel down and sad. At full Moon, the Moon reflects charges that have passed the earth back into the ionosphere, raising the voltage. We feel giddy and happy. We trade according to how we feel.

在对地球电离层的潮汐影响上，月亮是一个主要的贡献者。在新月，月亮是处于地球和太阳之间的。它挡住了电荷（挡住了太阳风），使电离层的电压降低，也使我们身体上感应的电压降低。我们就感受到低落和悲哀忧愁。在满月，月亮反射那些已经穿过地球的电荷使他们再回到电离层，使得电压升高。我们感到兴奋和快乐。而我们交易是按照我们的感觉来进行的。

As the earth rotates, it moves the stock and commodity exchanges past the Moon every day. It moves them under the Moon, away from the Moon, and to Moonrise and Moonset positions. These four positions can be found in the intraday price actions of stocks and commodities. Each stock or commodity has a different sensitivity to these electric tides. Just as the shape of a bay determines the response of the bay to the average tides, the nature of the market determines the response of the market to the Moon tides in the earth's electric field.

因为地球的自转，使的股票和期货的交易每天都通过月亮，它会驱动它们处于月亮之下，远离月亮，月出，和月落的位置。这四个位置可以在股票和期货交易的日内的价格波动中找到。每一个股票和期货拥有一个不同的针对这个电流潮汐的敏感性，就象一个海湾的形状决定了它对于平均的海洋潮汐的反应。市场的自然属性决定了市场对地球电离层月亮潮汐的反应。

Learning to compute tides has taken mankind several hundred years. Only with the invention of the computer and intense mathematical modeling has the goal been reached. So it should come as no surprise that the Moon's electric tides have not been computed - until now. After many years of effort, I have learned to compute the Moon tides that effect the S&P 500. This is a very difficult task, and one I am proud to have accomplished.

学习计算潮汐已经花费了人类几百年的时间。仅仅因为计算机的发明才使得精细的数学建模的目的可以完成。所以直到今天还没有对月亮的电子潮汐进行计算就没什么奇怪的。在几年的努力之后，我可以计算月亮潮汐对SP500指数的影响。这是一个非常难的作业，作为自豪的原因之一是我完全熟练的掌握了数学模型。

Unlike the ocean tides, there are TWO Moon tides, a positive one and a negative one. They are caused by the counter-rotating waves set up in the earth's electric field. So one never has a perfect picture of which way prices will go, just when they will turn.

和海洋潮汐不同，这里有两个月亮潮汐，一个阳性，一个阴性。他们是导致在地球电场上形成逆向旋转波动的原因。因此不可能有非常好的图形方式去勾画价格将要运行的轨迹，更何况什么时候转向。

This is what leads to chaos is markets. The two forces work against each other, as the buyers and the sellers compete. When these forces balance, prices congest. When one force wins a temporary advantage, prices move rapidly - we call that chaos. Several examples will show just how powerful the Moon is in the S&P 500.

这就是市场的混沌。这两种电荷的力量互相冲撞，好象市场中的买家和卖家，空头和多头的竞赛。当这些电荷力量达到平衡时，价格好象也好象拥挤在一起，窄幅震荡。当一种力量暂时赢得优势时，价格就出现快速运动，我们称其为“混乱”。几个事例将向你展示月亮是怎么有力的影响SP500指数的。

---事例待续---